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 Issue 26 (December 2016)


Issue 26 (December 2016) pdf

Marcin Rzeszutek
Collegium of Management and Finance Warsaw School of Economics

Susceptibility to Behavioural Biases among Professional lnvestors versus Naive lndividuals (pdf)

These studies were financed by grant 04/BMN/19/12 from Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Management and Finance. I would like to thank the Association of IndMdual Investors based in Wrocław, Poland, for help in conducting the studies described herein.

Purpose: Exploring the degree of susceptibility to behavioural biases (the disposition effect, overconfidence, mental accounting, and the sunk cost fallacy) among professional investors (n = 90) from Polish investment banks and brokerage houses and among naive individuals, i.e. psychology students (n = 90) from the Department of Psychology, Uni- versity of Finance and Management.

Design: This study was conducted on a convenience sample. 180 participants represented two 90-person groups, which differ in the level of expertise with a stock market investing filled out ąuestionnaire madę up of four situational exercises, which assessed susceptibility to behavioural biases.
Findings: Statistical analyses demonstrated that susceptibility to behavioural biases may not depend on the level of expertise in investing, i.e. a higher level of expertise with invest- ing does not prevent from irrational behavior on the stock market.

Research limitations: This study is limited by the relatively smali number of participants, a specific sample of psychology students as naive individuals, who due to their psychological knowledge may be familiar with some biases in this study and the exercises used to measure susceptibility to biases, which could seem somewhat artificial to professionals.

Practical implications: Expertise with investing does not necessarily help in making rational decisions.

Social implications: This study indicates the necessity of better educating investors to make them aware of psychological aspects of decision making.

Originality/value: This study has provided a new insight into the psychological aspects of decision making in the stock market.
Keywords: behavioural biases, rationality, behavioral finance

Krzysztof Borowski
Collegium of Management and Finance Warsaw School of Economics
The commodity market has become one of the main popular segments of the financial markets among individual and institutional investors in recent years, as an alternative possibility of investments. Like to the eąuity market, the problem of anomalies in the commodities market is becoming an interesting phenomenon, particularly in the segment of the agricultural and energy markets.
This paper tests the hypothesis of daily, monthly, the day-of-the week, the weekend effect, the first and the second half of monthly effects on the market of futures contracts of: crude oil, Brent oil, heating oil, gas oil, natural gas, feeder cattle, live cattle, lean hogs and lumber. Calculations presented in this paper indicate the existence of monthly effect in: January (heating oil, natural gas and lumber), February (gas oil), August (heating oil), September (heating oil, natural gas and lumber), October (natural gas), November (crude oil, Brent oil and lumber) and December (natural gas and feeder cattle), as well as the day-of-the- week effect: on Mondays (feeder cattle, live cattle, lean hogs), on Tuesdays (heating oil), on Wednesdays (heating oil, natural gas, live cattle, lean hogs and lumber), on Thursdays (crude oil, feeder cattle, live cattle) and Fridays (Brent oil, heating oil). The calendar anomalies were also detected for different days of each month on various commodity markets.
The weekend effect was not registered, but seasonal effects regarding eąuality of the daily average rates of return in the first and in the second half of each month were detected on the lean hogs market.
Keywords: market efficiency, commodity market, seasonality effects

Stefan Kruger
Collegium of Management and Finance Warsaw School of Economics  

A Practical Approach: Value-Maximizing IPO Timing Decision (pdf)

Finding the right IPO timing is one of the most crucial decisions shareholders need to take when they want to list their company on a stock exchange. This paper proposes a simple and in practice usable model to help identify a good IPO timing window. From a theoret- ical point of view, the model identifies Capital market inefficiencies (in case there are any) and gives shareholders of the IPO candidate hints how to use them. The key tool used is a multiple-to-multiple base trade-off analysis over time. The analysis identifies relationships between relative valuation levels investors are willing to pay and relative expected change in operating performance metrics. These market-implied valuation-to-operating performance metrics change relationships are applied to the expected operating performance of the IPO candidate over time. This allows approximating a datę with the value-maximizing combination of the multiple base and the market implied valuation multiple. 

Keywords: initial public offering, IPO timing, market efficiency, shareholder value creation

Andżelika Kuźnar
Collegium of World Economy Warsaw School of Economics
Eliza Chiiimoniuk-Przeździecka
Collegium of World Economy Warsaw School of Economics
The sourcing of services to manufacturing processes has recently become an important aspect of the global value chain concept sińce services have increasingly been embodied in manufactured products. Despite the ever-closer links between the two sectors, unbundling of many processes and sourcing them from overseas providers due to the cost reduction is vital for many firms in order to compete successfully in the global market.
In this paper, we explain the naturę and size of services contribution to global value chains and identify the most important market players. We argue that the increasing importance of services in manufacturing processes resulted in a widespread global sourcing of business services, especially innovation, which is essential for any business. It leads us to the conclusion that there are emerging economies raising and enhancing their position as service vendors next to the former (western) technology giants.
Keywords: value added, global value chains, emerging economies, services, offshoring

Elżbieta Marciszewska
Collegium of Management and Finance Warsaw School of Economics
Izabela Bergel
Collegium of Management and Finance Warsaw School of Economics
Adam Hoszman
Collegium of Management and Finance Warsaw School of Economics
Mobility is one of the most important factors to be considered in planning transport develop- ment. Mobility needs and patterns determine the use of transport means and infrastructure, therefore the scope of investment in new infrastructure or decisions to modernize already existing infrastructure elements should always be backed by a proper mobility analysis. The paper is devoted to the phenomenon of‘white elephants’ in air transport, i. e. expensive to build as well as to maintain and at the same time useless airports. The decision to build such airports is not justified by a reliable socio-economic analysis but usually is a result of overgrown ambitions of the investor. Inherent characteristics of such investments is high Capital intensity, overestimation of futurę usage, many deficiencies and low-quality Solutions. The analysis of the ‘white elephants’ phenomenon is important not only because such investments lead to economic inefficiencies but also this wrong allocation may result in an excessive infrastructure supply in some areas while other remain underinvested, which may lead to a suboptimal development of mobility and may also skew mobility patterns.
Keywords: airports, white elephants, EU policy, mobility 

Jacek Miroński
Collegium of World Economy Warsaw School of Economics
Fabian Lenk
Boston Consulting Group, Germany
The article investigates if the relative importance of determinants of job satisfaction is influenced by cultural differences. The research evidence provided by a multinational data sample from morę than 40 countries and 376,670 respondents from 207 different corpo- rations shows that these influences are mostly not statistically significant so they become practically irrelevant for management practitioners. The interpretation of the findings focuses on two widespread assumptions about the role of individual and cultural values in the job satisfaction formation.
Keywords: job satisfaction, cross-cultural management, cultural values, individual values